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UFC 172:
Jones vs. Teixeira
Baltimore, Maryland- Baltimore Arena
SAT, APR 26 7:00p ET (PPV)
(19-1-0) Jones vs Teixeira (22-2-0)
online Streaming for UFC 172: Fight Night PPV!
Both fighters are skilled strikers and easily have enough power in their hands — and feet — to end this fight with strikes. However, the boxing skills of dos Santos distinguish him as one of the most feared strikers in the heavyweight division, and the statistics support that superlative. His striking accuracy is the best among heavyweights, and he has scored more knockdowns than any UFC heavyweight in history. In his first fight with Velasquez, dos Santos only needed one overhand right set up the technical knockout finish. He loves controlling the standup pace and typically outworks his opponents by 70 percent in volume, all while maintaining his exceptional accuracy and power. He uses a slightly higher mix of jabs than most fighters, but his skill in landing those jabs is another division-best attribute. Despite his wrestling base, Velasquez is no slouch on his feet. His metrics are above average in accuracy, strike volume and power. He is solid but not amazing with his standup, which makes it all the more interesting that Velasquez got the better of dos Santos when standing and trading in their last fight. Another slight difference between the two is the superior clinch striking of Velasquez. Both fighters spend about a quarter of their fight time in the clinch, but Velasquez has been in control of that position much more often. That means he may be more likely to put the fight against the fence in order to wear down dos Santos and nullify his strength out on the open mat. Does Velasquez need to avoid standing and trading? It is hard to know how much dos Santos was adversely affected by the rhabdomyolysis in the second fight between these two. Dos Santos may have been off his game for health reasons that night; regardless, Velasquez put a beating on “Cigano” for five straight rounds, which included plenty of standup striking. Although Velasquez failed to finish the fight, he demonstrated a capable standup arsenal that had dos Santos clearly hurt. If this fight remains standing, the matchup is a close one despite dos Santos’ impressive stat line. If the most recent Velasquez-JDS fight was any indication, it will also be worth looking at the takedown and grappling stats.
If the fight goes to the ground, it will most likely be Velasquez that puts it there. He attempts a stifling rate of more than four takedown attempts per round, landing half of them. Dos Santos rarely attempts takedowns; if he does, Velasquez has excellent wresting experience and takedown defense through which to deal with them. Velasquez will be more likely to change levels and has shown dominant ground-and-pound skills once he gets opponents to the mat. Neither fighter has won or lost by submission in the UFC. When in top control, they rarely advance position. The main questions on the ground revolve around control and striking. Historically, that favors Velasquez. When it comes to owning the ground game, Velasquez has held control a ridiculous 97 percent of the time he has spent on the canvas. That same metric for JDS is only 26 percent, with fewer overall minutes spent on the ground. The more subtle factor here is not the damage that Velasquez can do on the ground but how the threat of his takedowns will affect the matchup standing. In their second fight, Velasquez landed 11 total takedowns and had at least one in every round of the fight. That is a dominant wrestling performance in any fight, especially when a heavyweight title is on the line. Most people probably remember the gut-wrenching “punch faces” dos Santos made while getting blasted by Velasquez on the feet. It is certainly possible that the 33 attempted takedowns Velasquez threw at dos Santos over the course of that fight impaired the Brazilian’s striking defense, allowing the champion to land the better strikes. That is the power of changing levels and keeping a fighter guessing, and it could be the key to Velasquez making this an all-over kind of fight.
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